The Extremely Late Freezing of the European Russia's Rivers in the Winter 2006-2007 and Climate Warming

摘要

In this paper, anomalies of freezing of the European Russia's rivers in 2006-2007 are considered. Multiyear observation data are used for analysing of trends in time series, which express terms of the first floating ice appearance in the European territory of Russia. It is shown that, in the end of the 20th and beginning of 21 st centuries, a tendency of later freezing of rivers in this territory was detected. Linear equations that describe temporal trends were obtained for various rivers. Three variants of terms of the first floating ice appearance until 2020 were computed in accordance with the basic climatic scenarios. It was shown that changes in the climatologic norms are significant for all the scenarios. In comparison with the present values, future changes in the norms can reach 5 through 15 days.