Estimation and Medium-term Forecasting of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emission in Russia with Statistical Methods

摘要

A statistical method of estimation and medium-term forecasting of greenhouse gas emission is under consideration. It is shown that availability of significant enough and stable statistical relationships between greenhouse gas emission and a number of indicators of the economy development allows operational estimating and forecasting of greenhouse gas emission in the Russian economy with a lead-time out to several years. It is possible to estimate and forecast both the total emission of all greenhouse gasses in terms of CO_2-equivalent and emission of particular greenhouse gases in different sectors of economy. Both miacroeconomic and industrial indicators of the economy development can be used as predictors for building regression forecasting models.