The Analysis of Long-term Wind Speed Characteristics in the Chernobyl NPP Region and Possible Prediction of Radioactive Aerosol Release from the Ukrytie Object

摘要

Three-hour and daily mean measurements of the module of an average speed and wind gusts were analyzed over 2001-2006 in the Chernobyl NPP region using wavelet analysis and the method of the Herst normalized range. Diurnal and seasonal fluctuations are revealed, the periodicity of 8, 16, and 60 days is not well-pronounced. The derived Herst high-value coefficients (～0.7-0.8) against the background of well-pronounced seasonal and other fluctuations of an average wind speed are indicative of the fact that its temporal variability is far from being random. The analysis is performed to predict the concentration of radioactive aerosols released from the Ukrytie objeGt (the damaged unit 4 of the ChNPP), whose changes correlate with the wind speed.