Carbon Budget of Managed Forests in the Russian Federation in 1990-2050: Post-Evaluation and Forecasting

摘要

Considered are the contribution of managed forests in the Russian Federation to the climate change softening and the forecast of their carbon-depositing potential in the period till 2050 under different scenarios of the forest management. The sink of CO_2 to managed forests is estimated using the flow balance method. The CBM-CFS3 model worked out in the Canadian Forestry Service is used for predicting the carbon budget. It is found out that managed forests absorb 473.8 Mt of CO_2 per year. The carbon sink is caused by the reduction of the volume of the forest use and by the regeneration of cutover stands of previous years. Depending on the conditions of the forest use, by 2020 the CO_2 sink to managed forests will amount to 466-632 Mt/year and will be able to compensate from 21 to 29% of industrial emissions of greenhouse gases. The carbon absorption by managed forests will decrease to 105-235 Mt/year by 2050. To maintain and increase the carbon-depositing potential of managed forests, the Russian Federation needs the development of the system of purposeful activities on strengthening the protection against forest fires and on the intensification of forest reproduction.