A potential role of the negative emission of carbon dioxide in solving the climate problem

摘要

Considered are the following possible approaches to get over the crisis: the rapid reduction of anthropogenic emissions of CO2, the removal of CO2 excess from the atmosphere, and the targeted change in the balance of coming solar radiation. Presented are the basic engineering methods of CO2 removal which are able to ensure the negative emission of CO2 at the level of a gigaton per year. The maximum possible potential is assessed, the scenario till 2300 is formulated, and the average lifetime of CO2 in the sequestration reservoir is estimated for each method. Model computations demonstrated that even the whole set of negative emission methods cannot ensure the stabilization of global temperature at the permissible level under the most pessimistic scenarios of CO2 concentration increase in the atmosphere. The conclusion is made that since the middle of the 21st century the humanity will have to use all three approaches to bar the hazardous exceeding of the average global temperature.