Forecasting and valuing travel time variability for cost-benefit analysis

摘要

This study presents a formula that can be used to estimate changes in travel time variability following the implementation of a transport scheme. The formula was derived by estimating the 'UK model' for travel time reliability using comprehensive data collected in Australia and New Zealand over a two-month period in 2015. Estimates are based on a cross-section of 2702 streets in ten cities, recording average travel time and its standard deviation. The results of this econometric analysis indicate a similar relationship to the one derived in the UK, but with differences in the magnitude of the estimated effects. This study also demonstrates how to use the estimated relationship to forecast changes in travel time variability following the implementation of a transport scheme, and how these changes can be used to estimate a monetary value of reliability benefits for inclusion in further cost-benefit analyses.