From the Editors

摘要

In this issue, Terje Aven offers a perspective on how to deal with "deep uncertainty" in risk analysis, reexamining the foundations and various possible meanings of the concept, pointing out some ambiguities in key underlying ideas (e.g., what exactly is meant by "known probability" or "correct model"?), and arguing that "We all find robust decision-making tools useful in providing decision support, but their role is considered of less importance in a regime where managerial review and judgment is acknowledged." His discussion raises thought-provoking foundational issues, such as whether there are (and should be) considerations in effective decision-making under uncertainty beyond what is captured in formal decision analysis. Aven refers to such additional considerations as managerial review and judgment, and discusses what role they might play in settings where relevant probabilities and models cannot confidently be identified.