Merger Simulation in the Presence of Large Choice Sets and Consumer Stockpiling: The Case of the Bottled Juice Industry

摘要

We simulate the price effects of several hypothetical mergers in the shelf-stable bottled juice industry. In doing so, we highlight the effects of consumer stockpiling on demand elasticity estimates and subsequent merger simulations. This task is complicated by a large number of choice alternatives within the bottled juice category. To address this challenge we employ a demand model based on the Distance Metric (DM) approach of Pinkse et al. (Econometrica 70:1111–1153, 2002). We find that merger simulations that do not account for consumer stockpiling behavior underestimate the permanent price changes that are likely to occur due to a merger.