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Forecasting the Equity Premium: Where We Stand Today

机译:预测股本溢价:我们今天的立场

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摘要

The Review of Financial Studies has among its missions the facilitation and promotion of a vigorous academic debate across unsettled questions in finance. This issue represents a cross section of views regarding one such debate: Can ourempirical models accurately forecast the equity premium any better than the historical mean? Or, is the forecast our empirical models give us any more accurate than what we would get by simply using the historical mean?
机译:《金融研究评论》的任务之一是促进和促进围绕金融领域未解决问题的激烈学术辩论。这个问题代表了关于这样一个辩论的不同观点:我们的经验模型能否准确地预测股权溢价比历史平均值更好?还是,我们的经验模型所提供的预测比仅使用历史均值所获得的预测更准确吗?

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