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THE STRUCTURE OF UNEMPLOYMENT

机译:失业结构

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摘要

We test for a unit root in postwar unemployment rates for sisteen OECD countries. When a one-time structural break is incorporated, the unit root hypothesis can be rejected for most of the countries and the measured persistence of unemployment falls dramatically. We then test for multiple structural changes and find evidence of one or two breaks for those countries for which the unit root hypothesis could be rejected. Almost all of the beaks are positive, reflecting the sustained rise in European unemployment. The major exception is the United States, where Long-term unemployment rose in the 1970s and fell in the 1980s.
机译:我们测试了19个经合组织国家战后失业率的单位根。当纳入一次结构性中断时,大多数国家都可以拒绝单位根假设,并且失业率的测算持久性将大大下降。然后,我们测试多个结构性变化,并为那些可能拒绝单位根假设的国家找到一两个中断的证据。几乎所有的喙都是积极的,反映出欧洲失业率的持续上升。主要例外是美国,长期失业率在1970年代上升而在1980年代下降。

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