Integrating a Computable General Equilibrium model with empirically calibrated transportation models for border crossing investment analysis

摘要

Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have been used extensively for assessing the economic impacts of transportation policies and projects. Most freight-related applications use stylistic representations of trade flows, commodity flows, and vehicles flows. This study proposes a framework that migrates from a stylistic CGE modelling approach by explicitly linking empirically calibrated transportation models of border crossing activities to a CGE model of the global economy. The framework incorporates stochastic queuing and mode choice modelling to comprehensively measure the impacts of border crossing investments. Border crossing scenarios include a 35% reduction in delay; a 4-min reduction in delay; and a reduction in delay resulting from the addition of one extra lane of capacity to each Canadian border crossing. Results suggest that the effects of border crossing investments and priorities are highly sensitive to delay modelling and mode splits, and less sensitive to mode shifts that result from investments. The proposed approach suggests Ambassador Bridge, Sarnia, and Fort Erie are the three most important border crossings for Canada's export competitiveness. A comparative analysis reveals that disregarding the real-world characteristics of the transportation system can result in large errors in the estimated impacts of border crossing investments on Canada's exports.