Predicting the Trend of Land Use Changes Using Artificial Neural Network and Markov Chain Model (Case Study: Kermanshah City)

摘要

Nowadays, cities are expanding and developing with a rapid growth, so that the urban development process is currently one of the most important issues facing researchers in urban issues. In addition to the growth of the cities, how land use changes in macro level is also considered. Studying the changes and degradation of the resources in the past few years, as well as feasibility study and predicting these changes in the future years may play a significant role in planning and optimal use of resources and harnessing the non-normative changes in the future. There are diverse approaches for modeling the land use and cover changes among which may point to the Markov chain model. In this study, the changes in land use and land cover in Kermanshah City, Iran during 19 years has been studied using multi-temporal Landsat satellite images in 1987, 2000 and 2006, side information and Markov Chain Model. Results shows the decreasing trend in range land, forest, garden and green space area and in the other hand, an increased in residential land, agriculture and water suggesting the general trend of degradation in the study area through the growth in the residential land and agriculture rather than other land uses. Finally, the state of land use classes of next 19 years (2025) was anticipated using Markov Model. Results obtained from changes prediction matrix based on the maps of years 1987 and 2006 it is likely that 82% of residential land, 58.51% of agriculture, 34.47% of water, 8.94% of green space, 30.78% of gardens, 23.93% of waste land and 16.76% of range lands will remain unchanged from 2006 to 2025, among which residential lands and green space have the most and the least sustainability, respectively.