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Nonlinear tail dependence in cryptocurrency-stock market returns: The role of Bitcoin futures

机译:非线性尾部依赖在加密货币股票市场返回:比特币期货的作用

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摘要

We investigate the median and tail dependence between cryptocurrency and stock market returns of BRICS and Developed countries using a newly developed nonparametric cumulative measure of dependence over the period January 4, 2016 - December 31, 2019 as well as before and after the introduction of Bitcoin futures on December 17, 2017. The new measure is model-free and permits measuring tail risk. The results highlight the leading role of S&P500, Nasdaq and DAX 30 in predicting BRICS and developed countries' stock market returns. Among BRICS countries, BVSP shows a starring role in predicting stock market returns. BSE 30 is the most predictor of cryptocurrencies, which have a little predictability on stock market returns. Ethereum has the leading role in predicting cryptocurrencies and stock market returns followed by Bitcoin. Tail dependence shows substantial role of S&P500, Nasdaq and BVSP in predicting stock market returns. Subsample analysis show the role of Bitcoin futures in reshaping the mean and tail dependence between cryptocurrency and stock market returns. Our results have important policy implications for portfolio managers, hedge funds and investors.
机译:我们调查了在2016年1月4日至2019年1月4日的新开发的非参数累计依赖的金砖和发达国家的加密货币和股票市场回报之间的中位数和尾巴依赖性,以及2019年12月31日以及在介绍比特币期货之前和之后2017年12月17日。新措施是无模型的,允许测量尾部风险。结果突出了标准普尔P500,纳斯达克和DAX 30在预测金砖和发达国家股市回报方面的主导作用。在金砖国家,BVSP在预测股票市场回报方面表现出主角的作用。 BSE 30是加密货币最预测的货币,这对股票市场的回报具有一点可预测性。 Ethereum在预测加密货币和股票市场回报之后具有主导作用。尾部依赖显示S&P500,纳斯达克和BVSP在预测股票市场回报方面的实质性作用。 Subsample分析显示比特币期货在重塑Crypurrency和股票市场回报之间的均值和尾依赖性中的作用。我们的结果对投资组合经理,对冲基金和投资者具有重要的政策影响。

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