Comprehensive assessment of wind resources and the low-carbon economy: An empirical study in the Alxa and Xilin Gol Leagues of inner Mongolia, China

摘要

Due to atmospheric pollution from fossil fuels, the reduction of wind turbine costs, and the rise of the low-carbon economy, wind energy conversion systems have become one of the most significant forms of new energy in China. Therefore, to reduce investment risk and maximize profits, it is necessary to assess wind resources before building large wind farms. This paper develops a comprehensive system containing four steps to evaluate the potential of wind resources at two sites in Xilin Gol League and at additional two sites in Alxa League of Inner Mongolia, China: (1) By calculating the total scores of three indexes, including the effective wind power density (EWPD), wind available time (WAT) and population density (PD), an indexes method is applied to assess the theoretical wind energy potential from 2001 to 2010. (2) To judge the fluctuations in the wind speed, the Fisher optimal partition method and the Jonckheere-Terpstra test are used to analyze the changes in the average monthly and yearly wind speeds from 2001 to 2010. (3) Three probability density functions, i.e., Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal, are used to assess the wind speed frequency distribution in 2010. To enhance the evaluation accuracy, three intelligent optimization parameter estimation algorithms, i.e., the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), differential evolution algorithm (DE) and ant colony algorithm (ACO), are used to estimate the parameters of these distributions. (4) It is helpful to analyze the wind characteristics when assessing wind resources and selecting wind turbines. Therefore, the optimal frequency distribution based on the best parameter estimation method can be chosen to calculate the wind power density, the most probable wind speed and the wind speed carrying the maximum energy. The experimental results show that Site 1 and Site 4 are more suitable for large wind farms than Site 2 or Site 3. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.