Quantitative study on long term global solar photovoltaic market

摘要

This paper analyzes the relationship between the declines in solar photovoltaic (PV) module costs and cumulative production, silicon prices, supply demand imbalance and the presence of lower-cost Chinese products in global PV market using learning curve model. State of market development and its connection with learning is also examined. Results indicate that learning effect is best measured when supplementing output with silicon prices in the analysis. Learning rate (LR) diminishes over the time periods examined, thereby suggesting the declining of progress as market reaches maturity. The outcomes from the learning curve analysis are subsequently applied to project future uptake of PV worldwide, module and electricity costs till 2035. Demand for PV is anticipated to remain robust with cumulative installed capacity worldwide projected to reach 659 GW by 2035. At the same time, module cost is estimated to decline from $3.8/W in 2006 to $1.78/W in 2035, a reduction of over 50% relative to 2006 level. Unit cost of electricity from PV is predicted to be in the range of $0.13/kWh to $0.17/kWh by 2035 for the three scenarios analyzed. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.