Nuclear power development in China after the restart of new nuclear construction and approval: A system dynamics analysis

摘要

After a three-year low valley caused by Fukushima nuclear accident, China finally restarted the approval of new coastal nuclear projects followed by the gradually matured new generation nuclear reactor technology and increasingly more supporting policies. Under this major shift of policy environment, China's nuclear power development would certainly stride on a new stage. This paper simulated the growth rate, development scale and evolvement path of China's nuclear power by establishing system dynamics models in the new-round construction. Under the background of changing nuclear power policy, this paper is helpful to master the dynamic development pattern of China's nuclear power system. These dynamic analyses also have reference meaning to the prediction of nuclear installed-capacity, nuclear generation, uranium import and other relevant factors. Further, the simulation results of this paper provide the Chinese government with suggestions of planning China's nuclear push, and deciding the strategy of uranium supply in order to secure the safe and steady nuclear power supply. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.