MONTE-CARLO probabilistic valuation of concentrated solar power systems in Spain under the 2014 retroactive regulatory framework

摘要

The current Royal Decree 413/2014 legal-economic framework for concentrating solar power plants in Spain has been analysed from a probabilistic perspective. Due to the high inherent risk in most of the parameters defining this economic regime, the use of a probabilistic model is proposed to perform the economic valuation of these facilities. A methodology composed of different steps has been developed and applied to a representative concentrating solar power plant type with thermal energy storage. This method has proven useful for distinguishing the input parameters to be considered as stochastic by using a sensitivity analysis, and also for performing the probabilistic valuation by using the discounted cash flow-Monte Carlo analysis. The results have revealed a great variability in the several output economic indicators considered. In general terms, substantial reductions in the profitability of these facilities have been evidenced with respect to the deterministic analysis under the current reality of the sector.