Comparative analysis of design criteria for hybrid photovoltaic/wind/battery systems

摘要

Reliability analyses are essential for the design of hybrid photovoltaic/wind/battery systems. The selection of design criteria is an important task and has to ensure proper reliability and optimal configuration. In the literature, loss of power supply probability (LPSP) and loss of load hours (LOLH) are the most common reliability criteria used for this matter. This study presents a comparative analysis on LPSP and LOLH design criteria based on a Monte Carlo simulation, taking into consideration uncertainties in the variables involved in the design process. Moreover, two new statistical design criteria are proposed, aiming to avoid over-sizing of the optimal configuration. According to the obtained results, LOLH is a stricter design criterion compared with LPSP, leading to a more reliable energy system. In addition, the optimal configuration selected by using the proposed statistical design criteria showed better performance when compared with the solution based on LPSP or LOLH.