Transition towards decarbonised power systems and its socio-economic impacts in West Africa

摘要

Pathways towards a defossilated sustainable power system for West Africa within the time horizon of 2015-2050 is researched, by applying linear optimisation modelling to determine the cost optimal generation mix to meet the demand based on assumed costs and technologies in 5-year intervals. Six scenarios were developed, which aimed at examining the impact of various policy constraints such as cross-border electricity trade and greenhouse gas emissions costs. Solar PV emerges as the prime source of West Africa's future power system, supplying about 81-85% of the demand in the Best Policy Scenarios for 2050. The resulting optimisation suggests that the costs of electricity could fall from 70 (sic)/MWh in 2015 to 36 (sic)/MWh in 2050 with interconnection, and to 41 (sic)/MWh without interconnection in the Best Policy Scenarios by 2050. Whereas, the levelised cost of electricity without greenhouse emission costs in the Current Policy Scenario is 70 (sic)/MWh. Results of the optimisation indicate that a fully renewables based power system is the least-cost, least-GHG emitting and most job-rich option for West Africa. This study is the first of its kind study for the West African power sector from a long-term perspective. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.