Understanding complex blasting operations: A structural equation model combining Bayesian networks and latent class clustering

摘要

A probabilistic Structural Equation Model (SEM) based on a Bayesian network construction is introduced to perform effective safety assessments for technicians and managers working on-site. Using novel AI software, the introduced methodology aims to show how to deal with complex scenarios in blasting operations, where typologically different variables are involved. Sequential Bayesian networks, learned from the data, were developed while variables were grouped into different clusters, representing related risks. From each cluster, a latent variable is induced giving rise to a final Bayesian network where cause and effect relationships maximize the prediction of the accident type. This hierarchical structure allows to evaluate different operational strategies, as well as analyze using information theory the weight of the different risk groups. The results obtained unveil hidden patterns in the occurrence of accidents due to flyrock phenomena regarding the explosive employed or the work characteristics. The integration of latent class clustering in the process proves to be an effective safeguard to categorize the variable of interest outside of personal cognitive biases. Finally, the model design and the software applied to show a flexible workflow, where workers at different corporate levels can feel engaged to try their beliefs to design safety interventions.