A historical overview of probabilistic risk assessment development and its use in the nuclear power industry: a tribute to the late Professor Norman Carl Rasmussen

摘要

This paper reviews the historical development of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods and applications in the nuclear industry. A review of nuclear safety and regulatory developments in the early days of nuclear power in the United States has been presented. It is argued that due to technical difficulties for measuring and characterizing uncertainties and concerns over legal challenges, safety design and regulation of nuclear power plants has primarily relied upon conservative safety assessment methods derived based on a set of design and safety principles. Further, it is noted that the conservatism adopted in safety and design assessments has allowed the use of deterministic performance assessment methods. This approach worked successfully in the early years of nuclear power epoch as the reactor design proved to be safe enough. However, it has been observed that as the conservative approach to design and safety criteria proved arbitrary, and yielded inconsistencies in the degree to which different safety measures in nuclear power plants protect safety and public heath, the urge for a more consistent assessment of safety became apparent in the late 1960s. In the early 1970s, as a result of public and political pressures, then the US Atomic Energy Commission initiated a new look at the safety of the nuclear power plants through a comprehensive study called 'Reactor Safety Study' (WASH-1400, or 'Rasmussen Study'—after its charismatic study leader Professor Norman Rasmussen of MIT) to demonstrate safety of the nuclear power plants. Completed in October 1975, this landmark study introduced a novel probabilistic, systematic and holistic approach to the assessment of safety, which ultimately resulted in a sweeping paradigm shift in safety design and regulation of nuclear power in the United States in the turn of the Century. Technical issues of historic significance and concerns raised by the subsequent reviews of the Rasmussen Study have been discussed. Effect of major events and developments such as the Three Mile Island accident and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Nuclear Industry sponsored studies on the tools, techniques and applications of the PRA that culminated in the present day risk-informed initiatives has been discussed.