Risk-based design of process systems using discrete-time Bayesian networks

摘要

Temporal Bayesian networks have gained popularity as a robust technique to model dynamic systems in which the components' sequential dependency, as well as their functional dependency, cannot be ignored. In this regard, discrete-time Bayesian networks have been proposed as a viable alternative to solve dynamic fault trees without resort to Markov chains. This approach overcomes the drawbacks of Markov chains such as the state-space explosion and the error-prone conversion procedure from dynamic fault tree. It also benefits from the inherent advantages of Bayesian networks such as probability updating. However, effective mapping of the dynamic gates of dynamic fault trees into Bayesian networks while avoiding the consequent huge multi-dimensional probability tables has always been a matter of concern. In this paper, a new general formalism has been developed to model two important elements of dynamic fault tree, i.e., cold spare gate and sequential enforcing gate, with any arbitrary probability distribution functions. Also, an innovative Neutral Dependency algorithm has been introduced to model dynamic gates such as priority-AND gate, thus reducing the dimension of conditional probability tables by an order of magnitude. The second part of the paper is devoted to the application of discrete-time Bayesian networks in the risk assessment and safety analysis of complex process systems. It has been shown how dynamic techniques can effectively be applied for optimal allocation of safety systems to obtain maximum risk reduction.