The Tax Returns of Public Spending on Universities: An Estimate with Monte Carlo Simulations

摘要

This paper proposes a methodology based on counterfactual scenarios and the existence of uncertainty to estimate the tax returns of public spending of regional governments on their public universities. The introduction of differences in the time spent by the students at university and the proportion of the total public expenditure implies making assumptions about uncertainty. The paper applies Monte Carlo simulations incorporating stochastic elements to estimate the tax returns of public spending in the University of the Basque Country (Spain). The results indicate that public expenditure in university education is a profitable investment from a fiscal perspective.