Participatory foresight analysis of the cash crop sector at the regional level: case study from southwestern France

摘要

Following the request of local stakeholders, a multidisciplinary group of experts was formed to implement a foresight analysis of the cash crop sector in the Midi-Pyrenees region. The group developed a four-step multidisciplinary and participatory methodology that defined the objectives, established a shared diagnosis of the issue raised in the regional cash crop sector, implemented a foresight analysis, and then created a graphical summary. Three types of working groups (steering, restricted, and expanded) were involved with well-assigned tasks. The dynamic interactions between the different groups of stakeholders and scientists and the use of graphics and maps as a medium to identify critical areas, such as zones in which production or environmental issues, are declining or evolving, enabled a shared view of regional problems. The main contribution of this paper is the presentation of a participative methodology that enabled co-construction of three shared scenarios based on the combination of five major uncertainties: (i) change in agricultural markets and international trade; (ii) urbanization and regional planning; (iii) changing patterns of consumption and product processing; (iv) environmental issues in public policies; and (v) ability of farmers to implement innovative tools and methods.