MONITORING AND FORECASTING OF RADIATION HAZARD FROM GREAT SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS BY USING ON-LINE ONE-MIN NEUTRON MONITOR AND SATELLITE DATA

摘要

The method of automatically determining the start of great solar energetic particle (SEP) events are described on the basis of cosmic ray (CR) one-min observations by neutron monitors in real-time scale. It is shown that the probabilities of false alarms and missed triggers are negligible. After the start of SEP event, it is automatically determined by the method of coupling functions the SEP energy spectrum and flux for each minute of observations. By solving the inverse problem during few first minutes of SEP event, diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space, source function on the Sun, and time of ejection of SEP into solar wind are determined. For extending obtained results into small energy range we use also available from Internet the satellite one-min CR data. This make possible to give forecast of space-time variation of SEP for more than 2 days and estimate expected radiation dose for satellite and aircrafts. With each new minute of observations, the quality of forecast increased, and after ～30 min became near 100%.