Potential impacts of radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays on childhood leukemia in France: a quantitative risk assessment

摘要

Previous epidemiological studies and quantitative risk assessments (QRA) have suggested that natural background radiation may be a cause of childhood leukemia. The present work uses a QRA approach to predict the excess risk of childhood leukemia in France related to three components of natural radiation: radon, cosmic rays and terrestrial gamma rays, using excess relative and absolute risk models proposed by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). Both models were developed from the Life Span Study (LSS) of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Previous risk assessments were extended by considering uncertainties in radiation-related leukemia risk model parameters as part of this process, within a Bayesian framework. Estimated red bone marrow doses cumulated during childhood by the average French child due to radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays are 4.4, 7.5 and 4.3 mSv, respectively. The excess fractions of cases (expressed as percentages) associated with these sources of natural radiation are 20 % [95 % credible interval (CI) 0–68 %] and 4 % (95 % CI 0–11 %) under the excess relative and excess absolute risk models, respectively. The large CIs, as well as the different point estimates obtained under these two models, highlight the uncertainties in predictions of radiation-related childhood leukemia risks. These results are only valid provided that models developed from the LSS can be transferred to the population of French children and to chronic natural radiation exposures, and must be considered in view of the currently limited knowledge concerning other potential risk factors for childhood leukemia. Last, they emphasize the need for further epidemiological investigations of the effects of natural radiation on childhood leukemia to reduce uncertainties and help refine radiation protection standards.