An algorithm of discrete-time Bayesian network for reliability analysis of multilevel system with warm spare gate

摘要

Discrete-time Bayesian network (DTBN) is a popular tool for the reliability analysis of dynamic systems, which, however, is insufficient in analyzing the reliability of multilevel system (MLS) with warm spare (WSP) gates. Additionally, conventional DTBNs are not able to consider the situation that dormant components and primary components may fail during the same time interval. To this end, this paper analyzes the dynamic reliability characteristics of dormant systems with WSP gates by utilizing DTBNs. Moreover, an algorithm of modeling the conditional probability table (CPT) for WSP gates together with a new schedule of constructing dynamic Bayesian networks is put forward. The validation of the proposed techniques is implemented by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and reliability analysis of an actual communication station system.