Public perceptions and bond markets during the Great War: the case of a neutral country

摘要

Neutrality during World War I was not assured but depended on the ability of a neutral state to adjust to the major belligerent powers' interests. How did Switzerland manage to adhere to its neutrality policy under those circumstances? This paper analyzes contemporary perceptions of neutrality by means of a structural break analysis. According to historiography Switzerland was endangered from within rather than by foreign actions. The analysis based on a newly assembled database supports this assessment in parts. In the bondholders' view, Switzerland's neutrality was most threatened by the events leading up to the general strike in November 1918.