Potemkin Villages: 'The' Medium-Term Expenditure Framework in Developing Countries

摘要

By neglecting institutional and capacity considerations, medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF) introduction has produced in most developing countries elaborate facades of fiscal reform at high transaction costs without improving budgetary outcomes. There have been positive impacts: awareness of the need to look beyond the immediate urgencies; some encouragement of intragovernmental coordination; and initial orientation toward results. Negative impacts have been much heavier: little local ownership; distraction from basic budgeting problems; and , severe strain on limited capacity. Unbundling "the" MTEF permits identifying the variant suitable to the specific country and the steps to gradually develop it: unlike a "programmatic MTEF," a simple "forecasting MTEF" is both feasible and useful.