Bayesian statistical inference in psychology: Comment on Trafimow (2003)

摘要

D. Trafimow (2003) presented an analysis of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) using Bayes's theorem. Among other points, he concluded that NHST is logically invalid, but that logically valid Bayesian analyses are often not possible. The latter conclusion reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of Bayesian inference. This view needs correction, because Bayesian methods have an important role to play in many psychological problems where standard techniques are inadequate. This comment, with the help of a simple example, explains the usefulness of Bayesian inference for psychology.