Measuring the impact of flooding on UK house prices: A new framework for small sample problems

摘要

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to show how the measurement of the effect of flooding on house value can be invaluable information for professional valuers and homeowners alike. In the UK, even for an event as devastating as the autumn 2000 flood, the number of properties affected in any one town is small and so robust estimation is problematic and methodology applied elsewhere needs modification. A new framework for analysing the effect of flooding on house value in the UK is presented. Design/methodology/approach – Data issues play a crucial role in determining the methodology employed in any analysis. A repeat sales methodology is proposed which allows for the tracking of effects through time. The analysis can be extended to multiple sites via a block design thereby increasing the sample size. Findings – Empirical analysis of one case study site demonstrates the inherent small sample problem and yet reveals patterns that fall in line with expected outcomes in many respects. Research limitations/implications – The case study results are illustrative only. A programme of further analysis is planned which includes comparison of the new framework with more traditional approaches. Originality/value – A novel methodology is developed tracking the temporal variability in flood effect. The minimisation of data requirements inherent in the model allows for transfer to multiple sites and easy updating of the analysis.