Remember the story of the little boy who said the emperor was naked, while all the grownups were praising the quality and beauty of his new suit of clothes out of fear of his reaction to the truth, or even worse, doubts about their own perceptions? Professional forecasters are more like those adults than the little boy. They play it safe and go along with the crowd rather than taking the chance of being labeled a crackpot; they avoid absolutes like "never" and "always;" and they stay close to the trend to keep from being totally wrong. Sometimes, however, the little boy or girl inside each of us cannot be suppressed. And right now, while I ponder the rail-car market's huge backlog of unfilled tank-car orders, the little boy in me is shouting that too many tank cars are being built, at least for this year and next.
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