Lessons learned from the PICES/GLOBEC Climate Change and Carrying Capacity (CCCC) Program and Synthesis Symposium

摘要

We summarize the scientific progress and significant findings of the Climate Change and Carrying Capacity (CCCC) integrative Scientific Program of PICES. Through a series of symposia, information on progress in addressing the key CCCC objectives on physical forcing, lower trophic level responses, higher trophic level responses and ecosystem interactions was exchanged among PICES member countries and scientists. Coupling of ecological and physical models was significantly advanced by CCCC, as evidenced by the wide use of and community acceptance of the NEMURO family of models of lower trophic level dynamics. Although significant progress on understanding the impact of climate variability, especially regime shifts, has been made within the CCCC Program, less progress was evident on other original objectives. Foremost among these were the lack of progress towards better documenting and understanding the carrying capacity of the North Pacific for key harvested fish species and an inability (so far) to provide quantitative and skillful forecasts of future ocean ecosystem conditions.