Development of a Post-disaster Recovery Simulation Model using a Multi-agent System Framework

摘要

Pre-planning for disaster recovery is essential to enable communities at risk to effectively recover from natural disasters。 To allow for such effective pre-planning, a holistic understanding of the underlying dynamic behaviors involved in the recovery process is necessary。 One of the major sources of the dynamics in the system is residents' behavioral decisions。 The way affected residents make decisions under uncertainty and how these decisions get propagated over space and time to eventually affect the overall recovery in the community is the major focus of this research。 Therefore, the objective of this research is to introduce a new methodological approach to capture the dynamics of post-disaster recovery by modeling residents' decision making and interactions within the recovery environment。 In this approach, affected households are modeled as agents with certain requirements and priorities, and a belief structure which is updated as the recovery proceeds。 The interaction between their requirements and belief forms the basis for their decision to move away from or stay in the recovery area.