Climate change: are building codes keeping up? A case study on hurricanes in the Caribbean

摘要

Effective building codes should provide design guidelines that reflect the current levels of natural hazards. For resilient design, codes also need to look ahead for extreme environmental loadings and hazards related to climate change. This paper describes a risk management perspective on the environmental loading conditions in design standards through the use of meteorological data and probabilistic severe event simulations. A case study explores hurricane intensity in the Caribbean and the modelled expected maximum wind speeds and hurricane category for the region along with local design codes. These findings are used as an informed-decision-support tool for risk managers and design engineers. It has been observed that the environmental loading definitions and maps provided in building codes are in some cases based on historical data that have not been updated with the latest hazard databases or more recent events. Building standards and regulations should be regularly revised to reflect the latest hazard information available to ensure that they lead to resilient design reflecting the current and expected future states of natural hazard risk, allowing for adaptation to address climate change, thus improving future hazard-resilient structures and buildings.