A subjective risk management approach for modelling of failure induced ship vibrations

摘要

Performance degradations (failures) onboard ships have a significant contribution to ship hull/machinery vibration (SHV) which may lead to marine accidents. Due to the complexity of risks of SHV, conventional Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) techniques may not often be capable of providing sufficient risk management information to minimise the risks of SHV. In this study a subjective novel approach is developed by combining discrete fuzzy sets with Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to deal with management of SHV induced risks.The causes of each failure event are compared with each other in terms of failure likelihood, failure capability, failure recovery incapability and failure consequence probability to achieve the relative importance and overall risk estimation of each cause. Finally, relevant Risk Control Options (RCOs) are introduced and the effectiveness of each RCO is evaluated to minimise the risks of major causes which create SHV. The results of this paper reveal that the marriage of discrete fuzzy sets and AHP is capable of producing the information to manage the risks of SHV.