UN Project Future of the World Economy :What Did Not Come True?

摘要

The article is devoted to an analysis of long-term forecasting based on input-output models. The base scenarios for world economic development constructed within the framework of the United Nations well-known forecasting project Future of the World Economy in the 1970s are discussed. Substantiation is given for the idea that the main reason why the forecast deviated from the actual development parameters for regions of the world is that institutional threats in countries of Africa and Latin America and in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe were underestimated. Another reason is the failure to adequately take into account the effect of the energy crisis. The main conclusion is that experts involved in forecasting are able to foresee development possibilities better than threats.