Risk due to load forecast uncertainty in short term power systemplanning

摘要

This paper presents a methodology to analyze the risk of shortnterm power system operational planning in the presence of electricalnload forecast uncertainty. As the authors' methodology requires annestimate of the load forecast variance, a Bayesian load forecaster isnused in the practical implementation. They express their results as anfunction of forecast lead time from one to five days into the future, innterms of $/MWH. The risk due to load forecast uncertainty is based onnthe forecast variance, and found by determining the expected cost ofnperfect information. They illustrate their risk evaluation method in ancase study with utility-derived power system data and temperaturenforecast data from the US National Weather Service