West Tracker: Forwards surging on weak hydro forecast, gas drives up spot power

摘要

Summer power forwards are surging across the US West with watersupply forecasts indicating a weak hydro season while natural gas prices are more than double year-ago levels, putting pressure on power spot prices. West wholesale spot power prices averaged 86% higher year on year in April, the biggest year-on-year movement across the US, as spot gas prices averaged 79% higher. Mid-C forwards had the strongest divergence from year-ago levels as on-peak May rolled off the curve at $28.74/MWh, 146% higher than the 2020 package, according to S&P Global Platts data. The trend continued down the curve, with on-peak June currently in the low $40s/MWh, an 81-month high and 180% higher than its 2020 counterpart, and on-peak July in the low $100s/MWh, a package high and 211% above the 2020 package.