China's Copenhagen carrot

摘要

Reports that China may raise its target for renewable energy to 20% of total energy consumption by 2020 will no doubt be welcomed, but the ability to set targets and the capacity meet them are two different things. In the run-up to the COP 15 UN Climate Change conference in Copenhagen in December, China wants to signal that it can control its greenhouse gas emissions without committing to a clear cap. The more ambitious its renewables targets, the more persuasive its argument. China's installed generating capacity is expected to be 860 GW by end-2009, while its consumption of crude oil is currently about 7.9 million b/d. Even at today's levels a 20% target would mean the construction of 172 GW of renewable energy and the development of 1.58 million b/d of biofuels. This is, of course, a gross underestimate because it assumes zero growth. Even in the current economic downturn, Chinese power demand is growing by about 5% a year.