Active Layer Thickness Prediction on the Western Antarctic Peninsula

摘要

The effects of climate change along the climatically sensitive Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) on active layer dynamics have just begun to be monitored. But extreme climates and difficult access make borehole installation here challenging. This study was designed to examine the ability of two commonly used, minimally intrusive techniques (the Stefan and Kudryavtsev equations) to predict active layer temperature dynamics and maximum active layer thickness (ALT) on Amsler Island, on the WAP. The ALT in soils and unconsolidated materials was predicted to be between 4.7 and 8.7 m, and between 11.9 and 18.6 m in bedrock, consistent with measurements made in a 14.6 m deep borehole. The thermal model HYDRUS accurately predicted temperature dynamics at several monitored borehole depths. The success of the HYDRUS method indicates that the model can be a useful tool in predicting active layer temperatures and approximating ALTs in regions that are too difficult to install monitoring boreholes. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.