Can technical analysis generate superior returns in securitized property markets? Evidence from East Asia markets

摘要

This study applies various popular technical trading rules to Asian property market indices from 1995 to 2015 to investigate the profitability of these rules. The results validate the predictive and profitability power of technical indicators in the markets of Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Thailand but not in the markets of China, Hong Kong, Japan, the Philippines, and Singapore. For markets in which technical indicators are predictive, this ability is proven useful in generating returns in excess of buy-and-hold returns using four different trading strategies. The study's results hold even after including transaction costs, adjustments for risk, and data snooping. The results for the markets in which technical analysis is fruitful contradict weak-form market efficiency, whereas markets in which technical analysis is not successful are at least weakly efficient.