Determining the Effect Rate of Speed, Volume of Passenger Cars, Heavy Vehicles and Light Non-Passenger Car Vehicles on Likelihood of Accidents on Urban Highways

摘要

In this article, the role of speed and volume of traffic on occurrence of accidents on urban highways is investigated using Fuzzy models and the accident data of Tehran urban highways is used as case study. To fuzzify the variables in scatter diagram, the notion of statistical percentiles is used for assigning the linguistic terms. To produce rules in each model, one or more variables are deemed effectively in occurrence of accidents. The evaluated number of accidents by developed models is compared with the number of observed accidents. The results of comparison represent the accuracy of each model. The model with the highest value of R~2 is the best model and the variables deemed effective for that model are those which do play a role in occurrence of accidents. Comparing the effect of elements of traffic volume indicates that after the average speed, volume of light non-passenger car vehicles is more effective on occurrence of accidents on urban highways than volume of heavy vehicles and passenger cars. After that the part of volume of heavy vehicles is more prominent than volume of passenger cars in the likelihood of more severe accident. The opposite is true for no injury accidents. After prioritization of variables in terms of influence on occurrence of accidents, the authors employed the models best fitting the data with the highest value of goodness of fit to do the sensitivity analyse. Sensitivity analyse specifies the effect rate of each variable on likelihood of accidents.