The macroeconomic effects of the ECB's evolving QE programme: a model-based analysis

摘要

This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank's asset purchase programme in its initial version and subsequent modifications under the lens of a dynamic macroeconomic model, which includes assets of different types and maturity, and explicitly introduces asset purchases of long-term bonds (held by euro area and non-euro area residents) by the central bank. With imperfect substitutability between asset classes, portfolio rebalancing in the context of quantitative easing (QE) affects bond yields, stock prices, the exchange rate and the private sector's saving decision. QE as announced in January 2015 generates 0.4% effective euro depreciation and raises real GDP in the euro area by 0.2% and prices by 0.3% by 2017 in the model. The subsequent extensions of the QE programme (extension in time and increase in volume) more than double the medium-term output and inflation effects according to the simulations.