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Modeling the impact of unmet demand in supply chain resiliency planning

机译:建模未满足需求对供应链弹性规划的影响

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This paper seeks to optimize the pre-event mitigation and post-event restoration decisions for disruptive events impacting supply chain systems, while specifically accounting for how unmet demand impacts the customers within the supply chain. The pre-event mitigation strategies will prepare the supply chain for various potential disruptions and then the post-event restoration decisions are the response of it to a specific disruption. In the context of the restoration, we consider customer behaviors which require fulfillment of demand at a certain time after the disruption and those which require that a cumulative percentage of their demand must be met on-time after the disruption or, otherwise, the customer will leave the system. In addition, we then require that the system backorders unmet demand in order to maintain the customer. We build two-stage stochastic programming models to increase the resiliency of single-product, single-echelon supply chain systems that include the cost of lost customers. We further provide theoretical insights into the impact of the two distinct customer types on the restoration planning, including conditions under which the restoration planning is independent of the customers' behaviors. Our insights from our computational analysis include that a 'chain reaction' occurs in most scenarios, which means the supply chain system tends to lose the same subset of customers even when they are not served by the facilities impacted by disruption. Furthermore, different sets of post-event customer behaviors tend to favor the same pre-event mitigation strategies. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译:本文旨在针对影响供应链系统的破坏性事件优化事前缓解和事后恢复决策,同时专门考虑未满足的需求如何影响供应链内的客户。事件前的缓解策略将为各种潜在的中断准备供应链,然后事件后的恢复决策就是其对特定中断的响应。在恢复的情况下,我们考虑需要在中断后的特定时间满足需求的客户行为,以及要求在中断后的时间按时满足累计需求百分比的客户行为,否则,客户会离开系统。此外,我们还要求系统补货未满足的需求,以维护客户。我们建立了两阶段的随机编程模型,以提高单产品,单梯级供应链系统的弹性,其中包括失去客户的成本。我们进一步提供关于两种不同客户类型对恢复计划的影响的理论见解,包括恢复计划独立于客户行为的条件。从我们的计算分析中得出的见解包括,在大多数情况下都会发生“连锁反应”,这意味着即使没有受到中断影响的设施为客户服务,供应链系统也往往会失去相同的客户子集。此外,事件后客户行为的不同集合倾向于支持相同的事件前缓解策略。 (C)2017 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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