Seaborne crude oil exports from the Middle East are estimated to have increased 3% y-o-y to 17.4m bpd in 2015, equivalent to 47% of global seaborne crude exports. Middle Eastern exports ramped up notably as a number of OPEC members raised exports as part of efforts to retain market share. In 2016, exports from the Middle East are projected to increase by a further 4% y-o-y. This increase is largely expected to be driven by expansion of Iranian exports, following the lifting of a number of key Iranian sanctions. As of 17th January, the US, UN and EU have lifted their nuclear-related sanctions on Tehran, following the publication of an IAEA report indicating that Iran has fulfilled its obligations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. There has been uncertainty over how quickly Iran will be able to raise oil production and exports following years of limited investment into the industry, although it is expected that production could well reach 0.5m bpd very shortly. Elsewhere, in late December, US Congress agreed to lift its 40-year-old ban on crude oil exports as part of a $1.1tn spending bill. As of mid-January, two tankers had reportedly been loaded with crude from the US for shipment into the Mediterranean, whilst another cargo is reportedly bound for China.
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