Coastal Forecasts and Storm Surge Predictions for Tropical Cyclones: A Timely Partnership Program

摘要

The NOPP real-time forecasting system for winds, waves, and surge has demonstrated the capability to produce timely forecast products up to five days in advance and to run in an operational mode without interruptions for the entire hurricane seasons in 2004 and 2005. The goal is to further amend these forecast products along the official forecast track by the NHC with results from an ensemble of alternate tracks that will generate risk factors of wind and wave exposure and the probability of flooding and inundation of coastal regions.