Sensitivity analysis of fusion power plant designs using the SYCOMORE system code

摘要

The next step after ITER is the demonstration of stable electricity production with a fusion reactor. Key design performance will have to be met by the corresponding power plant demonstrator (DEMO), fulfilling a large number of constraints. System codes such as SYCOMORE, by simulating all the fusion power plant sub-systems, address these questions. To be able to perform design optimizations, simplified models relying on physical and technological assumptions have to be used, resulting in a large number of input parameters. As these parameters are not always exactly known, the impact of their associated uncertainties on final design performance has to be evaluated. Sensitivity methods, by measuring the relative influence of inputs on the figures of merit of the design, allow the dominant parameters to be selected. This information helps the search for optimal working points, guides the priority for technical improvements and finally allows meaningful inputs for uncertainty propagation to be selected. A full set of sensitivity methods and their application to an ITER and DEMO design will be presented, discussing both the statistical method behaviours and the physical results. Plasma shape parameters (minor radius and plasma elongations) share half of the net electricity power sensitivity for the DEMO 2015 design, while the toroidal magnetic field and the 95% safety factor are responsible for 23% and 17% of the electric power sensitivity, respectively. The plasma minor radius is responsible for 45% of the pulse duration sensitivity for the DEMO 2015 design, while plasma physics parameters drive % of the pulse duration sensitivity.