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We can't go on like this

机译:我们不能这样下去

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摘要

It is possible to make the crude assumption that global energy use will double by 2050. If there are the expected improvements in the efficiency of fossil fuel use and a continuing shift from coal to gas, fossil fuels should be providing no more than 30% of global energy in 2050 to achieve the required reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Sources that do not emit greenhouse gases (renewables and nuclear power) would have to grow by a factor of about 15 from 2000 levels for this to happen, or by a factor of 50 if nuclear power is excluded. Against this background, a reappraisal of all approaches to providing energy is essential. This reappraisal must determine what actions are required in the near future to ensure that sufficient supplies and types of energy will be available to meet both growing world demand and greenhouse gas emission constraints. There are four major options to address these challenges: 1. Demand-side measures to reduce energy requirements. 2. Nuclear power. 3. Renewable energy sources. 4. Sequestration of GO_2 produced during the use of fossil fuels. Although these options are sometimes seen as being in competition, this is by no means necessarily the case. It is quite probable that some combination of all four will be needed.
机译:可以粗略地假设,到2050年,全球能源使用量将翻一番。如果化石燃料使用效率的预期提高以及从煤炭到天然气的持续转移,则化石燃料应提供的能源比例不超过30%到2050年实现全球节能,以实现所需的温室气体减排。不排放温室气体(可再生能源和核能)的排放源必须要比2000年增长约15倍,如果不包括核能,则必须增长50倍。在这种背景下,必须重新评估所有提供能源的方法。这项重新评估必须确定在不久的将来需要采取哪些行动,以确保有足够的供应和能源类型来满足不断增长的世界需求和温室气体排放限制。应对这些挑战有四个主要选择:1.减少能源需求的需求方措施。 2.核电。 3.可再生能源。 4.封存使用化石燃料过程中产生的GO_2。尽管有时将这些选项视为竞争产品,但并非一定如此。很可能需要将这四个全部组合在一起。

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