European new build and fuel cycles in the 21st century

摘要

Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R&D and investment, it is important to assess the future nuclear fuel cycle. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, fuel cycle scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code (Dynamic Analysis of Nuclear Energy System Strategies, developed by Argonne National Laboratory (US)). This code allows to provide a complete picture of mass flows and economics of the various nuclear fuel cycle scenarios. The present assessment recognizes the integrated nuclear fuel cycle and concentrates on the evolution under consideration of increased uranium prices, increased costs for geological disposal, lifetime extension of the current reactor park, and various nuclear energy demand scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will consist of a mix of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. The relative shares of the reactor types in the total mix depend on the applied boundary conditions such as the future nuclear energy demand, the reactor characteristics, and the assumed economical factors. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choices between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios, and enable an evaluation of future types and amounts of nuclear waste. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to employment of manpower for a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. Finally an estimate is provided of the radiological impact on the regional population due to the release of potentially hazardous radionuclides during the different steps in the nuclear fuel cycle.